Looking for Heads on Sticks

The news could hardly be grimmer: the latest worst-case scenario from the International Labor Organization predicts that as many as 50 million people around the globe could lose their jobs this year because of the economic slowdown. Meanwhile, according to a survey by the Edelman public relations firm, the credibility of CEOs in the U.S. is at a six-year low, with only 17% of people saying they'd trust what CEOs tell them.

So much for the real world. The big question in Davos this year is whether any of the 2000-plus delegates will take either issue into serious consideration. In the sessions I've been sitting in all day, much of the debate has focused on the far narrower questions of how better to regulate systemic risk, and what the major policy mistakes have been.

So far, not a single person has thrown a chair at a banker, or anyone else. In fact, with only a few rare exceptions, the proceedings have been  exceedingly polite. Yet that poses a problem: if the very real fear and anger on the street isn't reflected in Davos, what's the point of discussing the world's situation at all?

So far, I've only heard a Turkish businessman, Ferit Sahenk, and several union representatives even mention the possibility of social unrest. "If this crisis goes longer, it will lead to a social crisis," Sahenk says.

You just need to check out what's happening in Iceland to see what he means. After that country's dramatic economic collapse last fall, usually placid Icelanders have been taking to the streets in increasing numbers, and this week the government collapsed.

Iceland has been a harbinger for economic meltdowns elsewhere. There's no reason to assume that it won't also blaze a trail for the world's politics.

So what Davos needs now is a few more severed heads on sticks. Or as someone said to loud applause in a brainstorming session this afternoon, in other areas of the economy, if you make and sell toxic products you'll face severe consequences. How come those financiers and the people who were supposed to oversee them are spared?

More accountability is the answer, Edelman agrees (although he might quibble about the heads on sticks part). "CEOs must demonstrate that they too feel the burden of the recession."

Oh, and by the way, the ILO's best-case scenario for 2009 calls for "only" 18 million job losses this year.